Good Fruit Grower / Web 2011 / USApple forecasts crop at 227.5 million bushels, bigger than USDA estimate

 Email  Print  Feed

USApple forecasts crop at 227.5 million bushels, bigger than USDA estimate

More than 300 apple growers, packers, and shippers met in Chicago August 18-19 and pegged the size of the 2011 U.S. apple crop at 227.5 bushels—about 1.2 million more than the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast nine days earlier.
 

The estimate was made during the U.S. Apple Association’s annual outlook and marketing conference. “We were closer last year,” Mark Seetin, USApple’s director of regulatory and industry affairs, said when comparing the estimates made by USDA and USApple. Last year USDA forecast the crop size at about 225.6 million bushels, while USApple predicted 4 million fewer. When the final number came in, the crop size was pegged at 221.5 million bushels, with USApple off the mark by a mere 79,000 bushels and USDA off by 4 million.
 

Mike Rothwell, from Belding Fruit Sales and husband of USApple chair Julia Baehre Rothwell, claimed the extra bushels for Michigan—though there were departures up and down from the USDA estimate all across the country and Washington could make the same claim.
 

In Michigan, the number-three state in production, the crop size was bumped to 26.1 million bushels from 25 million forecast by USDA. Michigan’s 2010 frost-damaged crop was just over 14 million bushels and production has come back strongly this year. Rothwell said that, with new plantings coming on, the “new normal” for Michigan is probably 24 million bushels.
 

In Washington, Dan Kelly, assistant manager at Washington Growers Clearing House in Wenatchee, estimated the crop size at 129.6 million bushels, about 1.1 million bushels above the USDA number. The cool, wet spring set the crop behind by 10 days to two weeks—the same as for sweet cherries. Kelly said harvest could go into mid-November.
 

The late start could affect early apple sales. Steve Lutz, executive vice president of The Perishables Group, warned that lost early sales can’t be made up. “Be wary of a slow start this fall,” he said, recalling the marketing difficulties of the 2008 crop when the early price was set too high. “Don’t make that mistake and lose September and October,” he said.
 

For New York, the number-two state in production, Premier Apple Cooperative President George Lamont gave the forecast, pegging the crop at 30 million bushels, about 200,000 more than USDA forecast. Given the large size of last year’s crop and the rainy bloom season this spring, Lamont said the average-size crop is unexpected. “We’re lucky to have a crop,” he said.
 

He said that Gala apples might be somewhat small, given growers reluctance to thin this spring because of the poor pollination weather. After the wet, cool spring, New York turned hot and dry—but rains in August were helping size the crop.
 

USApple makes regional estimates of the crop size, after growers and marketers meet and evaluate conditions in their area. The East is made up of 20 states, with production dominated by New York and followed in sizes by Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina. The eastern crop was pegged at 55.1 million bushels, a million less than the USDA estimate.
 

In the ten states of the Midwest, Michigan claims 80 percent of the total crop. Like Michigan, Ohio has more apples than USDA says, according to the industry, with 1.9 million bushels compared to the 1.3 million forecast by USDA.
 

In the seven states of the West, Washington has more than 90 percent. California’s crop this year was estimated at 6 million bushels by USApple, compared to 6.7 million by USDA. Western production was pegged at 147.5 million bushels.
 

The industry-wide change growers are making toward modern fresh-market varieties is having a large effect on apples available for processing. The market is short of such apples and prices have strengthened this last year. Sheer availability of apples for juice and sauce is becoming a concern, said Tom Hurson, senior vice president of Tree Top, Selah, Washington.