March 1, 2000

Northwest cherry production could double

With demand for processing cherries stagnant, the fresh market will have to take the additional tonnage.

BY MELISSA HANSEN

"We're going to cross the 100,000-ton threshold in the next few years."

B.J. Thurlby

Sweet cherry producers in the western United States should prepare for what could be a staggering amount of product to market in the next decade.

A tally of acreage in six western states (California, Oregon, Washington, Utah, Idaho, and Montana) shows nearly 57,000 acres recently have been planted to sweet cherries--20 percent of which are not yet in production.

Using average production figures of five tons to the acre, the six states could produce 285,000 tons of sweet cherries in a single year.

"That's a lot of sweet cherries to move to fresh or processing markets," said Mike Hambelton, director of marketing for Stemilt Growers, Inc., Wenatchee, Washington.

Washington, Oregon, and California sold 150,000 tons of sweet cherries in 1999, marketing cherries from May to August.

Acreage in Washington is expected to reach about 21,000 acres, B.J. Thurlby of the Northwest Cherry Growers, Yakima, Washington, said. Fresh market cherry crop projections for Washington in the next five years range from 30,000 tons to 100,000 tons, depending on weather.

"We're going to cross the 100,000-ton threshold in the next few years," he said, adding that Washington's largest fresh market crop was 71,000 tons in 1998.

Total Washington cherry production, which includes canned, frozen, brined, and fresh market, has averaged 85,000 to 95,000 tons in recent years, Thurlby said.

It is estimated that 19,675 acres have been planted in California, some 20 percent of which are not in full production.

Thurlby said Oregon's fresh cherry production appears to be more stable than California or Washington's. In the past, around 10,000 to 12,000 tons annually are sent to the fresh market. However, Oregon, too, has increased cherry acreage and shifted to higher density plantings.

"We expect Oregon to cross the 20,000-ton fresh market mark by 2004," Thurlby noted.

In the Northwest, varieties represented in new plantings include Bing, Lapins, Sweetheart, Chelan, and Rainier. California has seen increased plantings of Brooks, Tulare, and Garnett, all of which are early-season, warm-climate varieties.

Generally, about 30 percent of the Northwest cherry crop is exported, 25 to 30 percent diverted to processing, and the remaining 40 to 45 percent sold to domestic consumers.

"The processor market is not changing," Hambelton said. "It is somewhat stagnant. That means the fresh market must absorb the increased tonnage."

Marketing a big crop

Thurlby, who directs promotion efforts for Northwest cherries, is confident the industry will succeed in marketing larger crops.

"We've never not sold all of our crop," he said. "We were able to sell our largest crop ever last year."

However, competition is coming from other countries who also want to sell their product in the same foreign markets as Northwest cherries.

European countries like Turkey, which will soon have the potential to produce 200,000 tons of sweet cherries, would like to take away some of the Northwest's lucrative United Kingdom market. China, with its rumored 25,000 acres of cherries, will affect Northwest exports to Southeast Asian countries once they develop infrastructure and penetrate foreign markets.

Larger Northwest cherry crops also mean additional packing and storing capacity will be needed. Hambelton questions if adequate belt time will be available for the increased cherry production.

Will cherry production still be profitable with larger crops?

"We have to be smart," Hambelton said, "and not randomly plant more trees. Be mindful of quality, tonnage per acre, orchard location, and be realistic in your expectations of profitability."

Timing is everything with cherries. Avoid the peak weeks of production around the Fourth of July, he advised.

Even with the potential to double tonnage, Hambelton believes there is profit potential.

"We don't know how big the potential market is, but we know there is opportunity to market more cherries," he said. "There certainly is potential for profit as long as growers plant smart."

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